Sure, you can make a bunch of predictions at the beginning of the year and calculate the Brier score for last year’s predictions, but all you need to do to feel that kind of cloud-dispelling mental work is this: go pants shopping, think of how good you’ll be at losing fat in light of all your previous new-year fat-loss attempts, and choose between pants with a 34″ inseam and pants with a 35″ inseam.